Exit Strategies
I was just thinking about some exit strategies as I was listening to the ol' Market Wizards. It's interesting because it becomes apparent that you can be "successful" using various strategies. When I'm talking about exit strategies right now, I'm thinking about what will get you out of a trade when it's not doing what you want. One guy in the book was saying that if you still felt his analysis was correct he wouldn't close the position. I think what many people or the majority of the traders to is have a stoploss in at some point in time. That is to say that sometimes they give it time to work then put the stop in. But at the same time if it doesn't work they get out. This kind of brings me to the point that I wanted to make that time is also a valid stop(loss if necessary). So maybe your stop is X% of an ATR away, or maybe your stop is at a given support/resistance level, but one of the things that I liked from several of the traders in the book and just from experience and stuff I've seen/read is that the best trades (definitely the best feeling trades) work immediately. If it doesn't maybe show some caution - reduce size? get out? try again? I think the reason understanding time is important is because as time is going on everything is changing and the expected value and probabilities are changing, and what you thought 10 minutes ago based on some variable has likely changed. This means we need to constantly be reevaluating. I also think that the best analysis happens when we are not in a trade. It would be nice if would weren't bias, but I see it creeping in during my own trades. If time is going by and your trade is not working maybe tighten you stop? I'm putting question marks but I've done/do all of these things. Sometimes I miss the eventual move in my direction, but I have to remember that I got out for a reason - because my reason for being in was not coming to fruition. I'm really trying to get it stuck in my head that the only thing that we can really calculate is how much we are willing to risk (not lose, risk). The less we risk or better we are at deciphering when to use risk, the better off we will be in the long run. So I'm pretty much done, but I think there's one more thing that is important. I thought it was interesting that some of the traders mentioned that your stop should not be based on a dollar amount you are willing to lose because this calculation has nothing to do with the market and it's participants actions. That is time, and levels, hypotheses based on market action are better. What do you think? Cheers!
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