Fashionably Late - but not too late trading

 There's a trade that's called the fashionably late trade and that's kind of the premise for this blurb and a conversation that was had. The idea is that you get to the party or trade after you see it happening. This is a good concept that traders (myself included of course) need to understand. As retail traders or even prop trader we usually don't have enough capital to move a stock or really change it's course. In a conversation recently we discussed trading as it used to be in the pits of the trading floor where a broker has a big order that needs to be put in and is trying not to tip his hat so he can get the best fill for the order. But others pick up on what is going on and then there becomes a kind of frenzy.  The whole discussion was based around a consolidation or opening range and what happens when there is a break of the range.  Now the fashionably late trade is actually a reversal trade and not a breakout trade, but I think the concept applies to both - that any high risk should be confirmed by an actual move. Yes, I like to see a bounce off of the bottom of a range and want to hold it for a break of a range to the top, but this is more hoping and with significant size without an edge and just with hope, it is more of a gamble. BUT when volume comes into a break, and there is pressure there this is more like seeing that the party has started and you want to be there. FOMO would be being too late to the party or going to a party that didn't exist because you didn't want to miss it if there was a party, but showing up after the part is late, but it's fashionably late - not so perfectly on time that the host is a little weirded out, but a bit later so that there is already something going on and some conversations to jump into. This is definitely something that I've struggled with and I'm sure many people do because I want good prices for my ideas, but then it turns out that my ideas were wrong and there was no party, or as seems to be the case, the party is actually going on, just on the other side of town. Something else that I think is so important about this concept is that there are most likely obvious levels to trade off of or to use as stops when you wait for the trade to really develop - the party really started - the lights are on, the food is out, and people are there. And to that point, there's no use in going into the party and trying to tell people that party is actually on the other side of town, because it's quite obvious where the parties at - no need to fight it. Cheers!

Comments

Popular Posts