Here's a flash of me Mulling over a trade/setup from my other journal where I review

 12/12 I wanted to write about this one a bit earlier than usual because This is a pattern that I see a lot of and I feel like I still haven’t mastered it. And I picked the wrong side today, but I think I could have handled this kind of trade a lot differently. One I didn’t really think of this as a big dog consolidation which it most likely is but I did recognize the triangle (pendant) and the break out and the test, but Instead of getting out, I was fighting for a reversal which never came. And instead of getting stopped out at the end of day I moved my stop because I thought it might wick over 47 and crash but it did not it wicked over and stayed and then pushed through at the closing bell up to 47.20. Which is about where I got out, but it was an extra 300$ loss. I think I could have A been more believing in the break of the triangle - It’s a thing, go with it until it breaks down. ( I will provide an image after). It came to retest the downtrend side of the triangle and never even really made it to the line but respected the mid (point) line of the triangle and then kept going. I had a chance to get out or set a stop at the test and would have gotten out even or little gain because I had very small size while still in the triangle and when it broke I put on more size (about 33% of full) thinking it would fail - I don’t think I had great reason for this other than my bias that the qqq’s (I was trading QQQ) is at all time highs and the VIX is very low. Maybe I was thinking a little too long term with my overall idea, and it did not translate into what was happening before my eyes. I still believe we are due for a pullback. I think I may even try shorting again if it gets below 47. My second half of all in was about 46.77-83 So I could short around there and not take too much washing. Right now it’s at 47.32 and the qqqs are getting very near 400.  Anyway……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

I want to try to understand any clues that I can get from the development of these triangles to better help me predict which way they will go and have more confidence in any follow through when there is a break. In this case I didn’t believe the follow through would be quite as strong as it was even though I new that the TQQQ was the biggest gainer etf on the day and top 3-5 for most of the day. Probably not the best to go against the strongest thing of the day. Luckily I made a little CLSK to counter a small portion of the TQQQ loss.  Here is the chart with volume and then I’ll do the 1, 5, 15, hour, and daily and the Moving average chart I think the volume and chart will have good evidence that there was more volume on dips than on spikes - that is my prediction but let’s look at it. 

not the massive volume candle on the break. There was a slight down trend from the spike to about the 50% retracement level (which is what I was watching) - yet I didn’t act when It’ wouldn’t break below (I know that the probability of there being a retracement further if it doesn’t cover the spike is unlikely - there are 33% 50% and 66% retracements or the full candle this made it about 66% ). There is selling pressure in the PreMarket and it carries into the Open but it looks like it was matched so about equal going into probably 7 am. After the large sell candle at about 7.30 i there is a move up and it continues down Until VWAP where the triangle is formed. I was short with small size off of the top of the downtrend So I really had no reason to not get stopped out for no loss with that really small size. I think, I was thinking that I want it to go up so I could get more size on, but uhm, this is a bad idea in hindsight considering it is a triangle and not some other shape or setup. It did go up :) and I did get all my size on - I guess you get what you wish for.  Just wasn’t thinking about it in the right way. I want to get it down to knowing what I should do what I am likely to expect in a situation like this. Thinking about it now it would make sense to have such a large up move when the triangle is over half the day. I mean it is a beauty and I could see me making big money on these kind of setups as I get to know them better. The best thing here might have been to wait for the Push through in either direction. I know that I can often expect a retracement of 50% or so and then I can put on full size and have a close stop because the triangle moves are pretty close. So Say It breaks and I start to buy the dip around 46.45 (the nose of the triangle is 46.41 so that would be one level to be cautious of then I have .38 .36 and .32 as support levels that shouldn’t be broken (i.e. I shouldn’t talke more than a 10-15cent loss on MAX). On the reverse side I would be looking for it to rebound and break with some volume which it does (you can see just after the VFI (volume FLOWindicator) dips below 0 and comes right back. At this point I’m in the drivers seat. A new level is create at 46.64-66 If this level were to break it might be a reason to sell atleast part of the position. But again there is a little volume push to new highs and then from about 11:45 on it was pretty smooth up to 46.90s And then well,  I would have made twice as much as I lost. I will try to find an example of a failed break and learn from that as well as many other triangles and see what similarities I can find. Some of the things I’m thinking are well the time spent developing will be connected to the prospective move after the break. Which Point marks the 4th or 5th part of the triangle (?), the previous trend,  the sector trend, Pattern of moving averages, failed dips, volume of course.  I’ll keep my mind open. What I think stinks is that I was in the money for why a while after that initial spike because that I something that I like to see because I know there will likely be a retracement fairly soon and there was and I didn’t get out or put a stop in because I wanted it to go a penny or two lower and I knew I had more size to use - this should not be an excuse to not put in a stop. After that broke the spike high I should have been running for the hills and outa there. 

This second 5 minute chart - there will be one more (these two are on my main screen that is recorded) Anyway THIS one likely has the best bottom signal (though I wasn’t trading it at the time). With the RVI double dip with Volitility spike in the first dip. During the trade I was in the MACD was pretty unruly - just kept going. You know looking at it the top to bottom MACD in the PreMarket and Earling Bell time was a pretty good reversal - I think top to bottom or bottom to top can signal more likely reversal areas. There was a pullback on the bottom to Top MACD but no continuation past VWAP - rsi hit 43 and bounced back up to 50 and up. Ok here are more charts of the same.

crazy this has tripled from the beginning of the year.  But it is down from 90! Well dinner and then more charts, oh wait one more now…. And then others

Lists for 12/12

There you go. Cheers :)